Overall it was a solid week for the market with major indexes reaching new bull market highs.
Looking at the market from a technical perspective our primary indicators remain in the bullish camp. Our concern over the divergence between small caps and large caps has mostly corrected itself with small caps turning positive.
From an economic standpoint little has changed. With the exception of weak Q1 GDP numbers, there have been no actionable warning signs of recession on the horizon. If the GDP numbers for Q2 come in weak, it could elevate the odds of recession, but for now, expectations are for Q2 numbers to accelerate and make up for the weakness experienced during Q1.
In regards to last week’s FOMC policy statement, the Fed has announced that it will hold steady on its current course of tapering stimulus this year.
While our indicators continue to support the bullish case, we are in what historically is a seasonally weak part of the year. As a result, we are comfortable with our current allocations and tilt towards being more defensive than aggressive.
As always, if and when the facts change – so shall we.