The Stock Market is Predicting the Presidential Election
History suggests the three months leading up to the election are an excellent indicator of who will win the election.
If the market does well in August, September, and October, it favors the incumbent party (Democrats — Clinton) winning the White House. If these three months do poorly, the challenging party (Republicans — Trump) is likely to win.
So far, the market has cast one indecisive vote. The month of August was down 0.1% on the S&P 500 PR Index. So far, September is up a paltry 0.4%, but we are only a few days into the month.
It seems the market is just as confused by this election as many of the pundits. I guess we will have to keep watching the rest of September and October to determine which way the market will cast its vote.
